If ODM keeps its fragile house of cards together till december (highly unlikely ) and they agree to support one of their own, I dont see kibaki making it back despite everything that Indicates that the man should remain in SH for the next 5 years to allow continuity in the present economic policies.

1Raila is not the man to beat kibaki .kalonzo maybe.
2Raila is actually popular. His rallies, wherever he goes are extremely huge.
3. Kalonzo, though not as popular nowadays, is not a push-over.
4. The Kibaki of today is not a particularly effective campaigner.
5. Narc Kenya will not get him very far. Narc Kenya will only become something if Kibaki is re-elected
6. Kenyans vote according to the Gospel of St. Euphoria. Kibaki’s men are not skilled in preaching this gospel